13 Keys Predict Trump 2024 Victory
We apply Professor Lichtman’s formula for predicting the 2024 presidential election
Professor Allan Lichtman, an American University Professor, has predicted the presidential election outcome since 1984. He uses a set of simple true or false questions based on what he calls the “The Keys to the White House.” Lichtman developed the methodology with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and claimed that when applied retrospectively, the keys accounted for every presidential election outcome from 1860 to 1980. There is some criticism of the Keys based on their degree of subjectivity, which is evident in Lichtman’s application. It’s worth noting that Lichtman’s prediction method is of the popular vote.
Lichtman stated recently that it's too early to call the election; however, he acknowledges that only one of the keys reflects the challenger. We don’t disagree that this race has considerable abnormalities (e.g., ballot challenges, bribery accusations, insurrection charges, wars…), and it's quite early, but nevertheless, we thought we would see how the keys are currently stacking up for the two presumptive candidates. This assumes that both Biden and Trump will be presidential candidates at the time of the election.
The 13 Keys Lichtman developed and used to determine the outcome include:
Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Here is a summary of The Right Balance score applying the Keys.
A breakdown of our analysis of each key:
Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Although the anticipated Republican wave in the recent elections didn't materialize as projected, the party managed to secure additional seats in the House of Representatives, obtaining control, albeit by a slim margin. The midterm results saw the Republicans clinch control with 222 seats, compared to the Democrats' 213. The recent loss of George Santos' seat in New York has further reduced the majority. However, it's crucial to note that President Biden's administration suffered setbacks during these midterms. Biden loses the midterm gains key. (FALSE)
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Currently, there is no significant challenger emerging for President Biden in the primary race. Despite other candidates such as Robert Kennedy Jr., Maryann Williamson, and Dean Philips, the situation remains relatively uncontested. However, keeping a close eye on this dynamic is essential, given the increasing interest among Republicans and Democrats in alternative candidates or potential challengers. Whether a third-party candidate will indeed enter the fray remains uncertain. Nevertheless, as things stand, Biden appears to face no major obstacles in the primary and seems poised to secure the Democratic nomination smoothly.
(TRUE)
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Biden picks up this key easily as he is the incumbent President.
(TRUE)
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
There is a notable absence of any significant third-party or independent candidate in the political landscape. While there has been speculation about potential runs by individuals like Robert Kennedy Jr. and Dean Phillips, neither scenario seems probable, and neither poses a substantial challenge to the President. As it stands, Biden remains in the advantage in this regard. (TRUE)
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
If the test, as stated, does not indicate a recession, then the advantage appears to lean towards Biden. Despite facing significant inflationary pressures, the economy seems to be managing them effectively. Strictly adhering to the formal definition of inflation, which typically lags by a quarter or two, points towards Biden's success in this aspect. However, there's a deeper layer to consider regarding this key. National sentiment suggests a prevailing perception of the economy being weaker than the numbers might suggest, particularly with wages lagging behind GDP growth. Even President Biden has acknowledged this discrepancy, noting the phenomenon of "snack-flation," where consumers pay more for smaller portions of snack foods. Therefore, in our assessment, this key should tilt in favor of Trump, as Americans have yet to experience the improvements reflected in the statistical data. Biden's apparent success may be misleading or just too early to know. We'll closely monitor this key for further developments, but for now, it’s false.
(FALSE)
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Evaluating data taken from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, real per capita economic growth rose compared to the two prior terms. Our data set included values from 2016 through 2023, the most recent data available. We took the mean value between 2016 and 2020 and compared it against the real per capita GDP growth of 2021-2023. Real gross domestic product per capita rose during the Biden era versus the mean value from 2012 to 2020. We found the mean real per capita economic growth for 2012-2020 is approximately $58,643.83. In contrast, the real per capita GDP growth for 2023 stands at $67,494. This indicates a notable increase in economic growth compared to the mean of the previous years. Excluding the year 2020 from the analysis, the mean real per capita economic growth for 2012-2019 is approximately $59,375.28. In contrast, the real per capita GDP growth for 2023 stands at $67,494. This still indicates a substantial increase in economic growth compared to the mean of the previous years, albeit slightly lower than when including the year 2020.
(TRUE)
Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
The Biden Administration has ushered in significant policy changes with far-reaching implications nationwide. Foremost among these shifts are the alterations made to immigration and climate change policies that marked a departure from the previous Trump era.
On the immigration front, President Biden has implemented various measures, including increasing refugee admissions, safeguarding deportation relief for undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children, and refraining from enforcing the "public charge" rule that previously denied green cards to immigrants accessing public benefits like Medicaid. Additionally, he has rescinded restrictions during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic that significantly curtailed the issuance of visas to immigrants.
In a decisive move to address climate change, President Biden promptly re-joined the international Paris Climate Accord, from which his predecessor had withdrawn. Furthermore, he issued directives for all government agencies to immediately cease financing new international carbon-intensive fossil fuel projects, shifting focus toward promoting clean energy initiatives.
Another noteworthy action was President Biden's executive order to reverse the Trump-era ban on openly transgender individuals serving in the U.S. military. While some may debate the magnitude of this policy change, its impact on the nation is undeniable, representing a clear policy reversal often lauded by Democrats as one of President Biden's accomplishments.
Despite facing challenges, President Biden successfully navigated the passage of a substantial infrastructure bill and a COVID relief package. Notably, these bills garnered bipartisan support, signaling a rare instance of cooperation in a polarized political landscape.
Some additional policies include:
COVID-19 Response: Beyond the passage of the COVID relief package, President Biden implemented a comprehensive national strategy to combat the pandemic. This strategy included measures such as accelerating vaccine distribution, expanding testing capabilities, promoting mask mandates, and supporting states for pandemic response efforts.
Tax Policy: President Biden proposed various tax policy changes, including raising the corporate tax rate, imposing higher taxes on wealthy individuals, and expanding tax credits for low- and middle-income families. These proposed changes aim to fund key administration priorities such as infrastructure investment and social programs.
Healthcare: The Biden Administration strengthened the Affordable Care Act (ACA), reopening enrollment through the federal marketplace to expand access to health insurance coverage. Additionally, efforts were made to lower prescription drug costs and expand Medicaid coverage.
Environmental Regulations: Besides rejoining the Paris Climate Accord, the administration pursued various regulatory actions to address environmental concerns. This included reinstating and strengthening regulations related to clean air, clean water, and environmental protection.
Racial Equity: President Biden issued executive orders and established initiatives aimed at promoting racial equity and addressing systemic racism across various sectors, including housing, criminal justice, and education
Despite the unpopularity of many of these policy changes, the key goes to Biden as True.
(TRUE)
No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Civil unrest pervades the United States, fueled by many pressing issues. Among these, the conflict between Israel and Palestine has garnered significant attention, leading to widespread protests that often spill onto streets, disrupting daily life. Additionally, there has been a concerning surge in hate crimes targeting individuals from various ethnic and racial backgrounds, exacerbating tensions and sowing fear within communities.
Moreover, the ramifications of immigration policies have begun to manifest, with local communities wrestling with challenges such as housing shortages and crime linked to immigrant populations. These issues collectively contribute to a sense of unease and discord nationwide.
However, despite the gravity of these challenges, labeling this key as "false" may oversimplify the situation's complexity. While unrest stemming from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and hate crimes is undeniably significant, the impact of immigration policies on communities warrants further examination. It's essential to recognize the nuanced interplay of factors contributing to unrest and adopt a comprehensive assess these multifaceted issues. Without resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict and immigration issues, we do not see unrest easing in the near term.
(FALSE)
No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
While the President finds himself under scrutiny amidst a House investigation into his son, Hunter Biden, and his business dealings, the matter lacks bipartisan consensus regarding the President's direct involvement. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for shifts in perspective pending the emergence of new evidence. However, current developments indicate that the scandal predominantly resonates within one political faction rather than garnering widespread bipartisan concern. Therefore, this key aligns with the President, indicating that the assertion holds true.
(TRUE)
No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Amidst ongoing conflicts, the perception of President Biden's foreign policy acumen has been marred by various challenges. Criticism abounds, with some deeming him weak in this realm. His inability to secure passage of a bill for additional military aid to Ukraine and the contentious handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict have drawn considerable backlash from constituents. Moreover, the execution of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has been widely criticized, drawing comparisons to past foreign policy missteps.
The collective weight of these issues, coupled with bipartisan pressure for more assertive actions such as military strikes against the Houthi in Yemen and within Iran, further underscores the perceived shortcomings in Biden's approach to foreign affairs. While individual incidents may not singularly amount to significant failures, their cumulative impact has led us to conclude that Biden's foreign and military policies fall short of success. Though the situation remains dynamic and subject to change, the prevailing assessment is disappointing, suggesting that this key currently tilts towards failure.
(FALSE)
Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Assessing President Biden's foreign policy and military successes paints a bleak picture. Despite extensive scrutiny, there is a notable absence of significant achievements in these realms. Some experts even doubt a coherent Russian foreign policy under the Biden administration. Similarly, concerns persist regarding the lack of a comprehensive strategy for managing relations with China, a pivotal global player, the United States' largest trading partner, and a strategic competitor.
A recent Foreign Policy article penned by Matthew Duss, Center for International Policy, underscores the prevailing sentiment, suggesting that Biden's revised approach to the Middle East offers little promise for substantive change.
Amidst ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, it becomes increasingly challenging to identify major foreign policy victories. Compounding matters, the United States finds itself entangled in conflicts with Iranian proxies across the region, further escalating tensions. Additionally, heightened Chinese military activities in the Taiwan Strait region indicate a growing assertiveness, raising alarm about the potential for conflict.
In summary, the absence of notable foreign policy successes, coupled with escalating tensions and challenges on multiple fronts, cast doubt on the effectiveness of President Biden's approach to global affairs.
(FALSE)
Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Amid mounting concerns about the President's age, perceived frailty, and frequent verbal gaffes, recent developments, such as the Justice Department report indicating his potential unfitness to stand trial due to perceived sympathy, have amplified worries. These concerns are not confined to opposing parties but are reverberating within the Democratic ranks as well. Consequently, the President's performance falls short of expectations, resulting in a failure to meet this key criterion.
Despite President Biden's extensive tenure in public service, spanning roles as a congressman, vice president, and now president, there is a noticeable absence of widespread recognition of him as a national hero. While his career has been marked by longevity and experience, this does not translate into a universally acclaimed heroic status on the national stage.
(FALSE)
Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If we define charisma as the ability to deeply affect people emotionally, this key undeniably leans toward Trump. He is widely acknowledged as a figure who elicits strong emotions, especially among his supporters. It's evident that the same characteristics that resonate with his base provoke strong reactions from his critics. Nonetheless, Trump undeniably possesses the capacity to stir people's emotions, whether they be positive or negative.
(FALSE)
As evidenced and explained, our analysis of the Keys indicates that Donald Trump will be elected President in 2024, provided that he and Joe Biden are the two candidates in the race. We encourage you to read Professor Lichtman’s book, “The Keys to the White House,” and apply the keys yourself.
In summary, we found that the majority (greater than 6) of Keys aligned in favor of the challenger (Trump) for the upcoming election. There are many dynamics already mentioned that could impact the election this year; however, we decided to test them early to get a sense of how predictive they really are. That said, we acknowledge that the Keys are subjective and that Professor Lichtman is better positioned to evaluate their application based on his knowledge of historical information.
We welcome the feedback and thoughts of our readers and invite you to join our discussion. Professor Lichtman may have some information to share on his progressing analysis and thoughts on the upcoming presidential election. No doubt, there are plenty of curve balls to be expected.
Citations
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/14/biden-middle-east-plan-gaza-hamas-israel-netanyahu/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA/#
https://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/lichtman.cfm
Lichtman, Allan J., and Vladimir Keilis-Borok. The Keys to the White House. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1996.